World Cup 2026: Ten-man Paraguay edge Turkey 1-0 to reach last 32

Galarza strikes early, then Paraguay dig in

There are smash-and-grabs, and then there is what Paraguay pulled off at Levi's Stadium in this World Cup 2026 Group D decider. They beat Turkey 1-0 with barely a quarter of the ball, having played the entire second half a man down, and still found a way to survive.

The story was written inside the opening exchanges. Matias Galarza struck in the second minute, finished off by Julio Enciso's assist, and from there Paraguay simply refused to give it back. Turkey dominated almost everything that can be measured — 78% possession, 2.17 expected goals (xG, the quality of chances created) to Paraguay's 0.32, five big chances created against none — yet the only number that mattered stayed stubbornly at one.

Paraguay's goalkeeper made five saves, the defence racked up 48 clearances, and a back line under siege held its shape on a clear, mild day in Santa Clara. It was a result built on discipline and sacrifice, and one that carried real weight: Paraguay finish third in Group D and, as the seventh-best third-placed side, provisionally book a place in the Round of 32. Turkey, fourth on goal difference, are out.

How Turkey and Paraguay lined up at Levi's

From a 2nd-minute goal to Almiron's red

The match was effectively turned on its head before most fans had settled. Galarza struck in the second minute with Enciso supplying, then collected a yellow card moments later — a fittingly frantic opening to a half Paraguay would spend defending their lead.

The pivotal moment came deep in first-half stoppage time. Miguel Almiron was shown a red card in the 45th minute plus three, an incident that drew plenty of headlines afterwards, and Paraguay headed into the interval not only protecting a one-goal lead but doing so with ten men. Both sides reshuffled at the restart, Diego Gomez and others giving way as the game settled into a familiar rhythm of Turkish pressure and Paraguayan resistance.

Turkey threw on attacking changes through the hour mark and pushed their full-backs forward, the frustration showing in yellow cards for Vincenzo Montella from the touchline and Elmali shortly after his introduction. Paraguay kept rotating fresh legs into the trenches — Velazquez, Maidana — and ran the clock down with two more changes in stoppage time. For all Turkey's territory, the equaliser never came.

Spot on: the community called the 0-1

This one belongs to the readers. The futbol.so community leaned towards Paraguay, and the most-chosen scoreline was an exact Turkey 0 - Paraguay 1 — precisely how the afternoon unfolded. Colombia's contingent backed the same call, while Argentina's fans were split down the middle.

What makes it striking is that the data pointed the other way. The official forecast made Turkey the likeliest winners, and on the balance of play — the possession, the xG, the procession of chances — that read was entirely reasonable. Yet football rarely settles its arguments by the numbers alone, and the community's instinct for a tight, low-scoring Paraguay win proved sharper than the model.

Video highlights

Highlights | Turkiye 0-1 Paraguay | FIFA World Cup 2026™

No geo restriction

GALARZA decisivo, MONTELLA eliminato dal Mondiale: Turchia-Paraguay 0-1 | FIFA World Cup | DAZN

Only available in IT

Turquía vs Paraguay (0-1) | Resumen y goles | Highlights Copa Mundial de la FIFA 2026™

Only available in ES

Turkey v Paraguay - Full Post-Match | Mata, McAnuff react

Only available in GB, GG, IM +1

HIGHLIGHTS - Turkey v Paraguay | Crucial Game in Group D | FIFA World Cup 2026

Only available in GB, GG, IM +1

Galarza nets fastest goal so far! | Turkey v Paraguay | FIFA World Cup 2026

Only available in GB, GG, IM +1

World Cup: Turkey vs Paraguay

No geo restriction

For Paraguay, the reward for a night of grit is a provisional place in the Round of 32 as one of the best third-placed teams — a spot that will only be confirmed once the remaining groups settle. They will want to find more of the ball when the knockout rounds arrive, but few sides have suffered for it less.

For Turkey, it is a chastening exit: a performance that controlled almost every statistic except the scoreline, undone by an early goal they never recovered from. The xG will sting for a long time.